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How to Beat the Bookies in the Football Over/Under Market

One of the beautiful things about football betting is the availability of several markets to bet on. Unlike in other sports where one can only bet on a few outcomes, football presents you with a host of possibilities and opportunities to make money. In this article, we’re going to explore how to beat the bookies in the game of football in – the over/under market.

The Over/Under market

This market is quite helpful in the sense that it saves you from the stress of predicting what the actual outcome of a football match will be.

With the Over/Under market, all you have to do is predict the range of goals that will be scored in any given match, and if your prediction is right, you walk away with your winnings.

In practice, you could predict there won’t be more than two goals (under 2.5) scored in a match. Or you could predict that there will be more than three goals (over 3.5) scored in a match.

However, that’s not to say that betting on the Over/Under market is cherries and cheese.

Far from it!

Below are a few steps to help you beat the bookies while betting on this market.

Step one: find the average goals per game

Before going ahead to bet on the range of goals in any football match, the first step is to first research the average number of goals scored per game by the two teams.

Ironically, this is the trick the bookies use, too, to determine the odds for the Under/Over market for any given match. They look at the number of goals a team has scored over a given season (or a specific period) and then divide this number by the total number of games played.

Step two: Calculate the probabilities of the suspected scorelines occurring

Now that you’ve researched the average number of goals your target teams score per game. The next thing is to calculate the probabilities (chances) of various suspected scorelines happening. Logically, the suspected scorelines should fall within the range of goals you believe the game can produce.

For example, if you feel a game has a tendency to be cagey and might not produce so many goals. You may be looking at a suspected scoreline like 0:0, 1:0, 1:1, or 2:1. This kind of scorelines can fall within the “under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 goal range.”

If you don’t have any suspected scoreline in mind, don’t worry. You can start your probability calculation from the bottom (calculate for under/over 0.5 goals), and work your way up (as high as under/over 4.5 goals). The only difference between you and someone who has suspected scorelines in mind is that you’ll need to do more calculations.

To calculate the probabilities of the suspected scorelines happening, you’ll need to employ the “John Haigh model,” which was published in his book “Taking Chances.”

In this book, John Haigh drafted a table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring none, one, two, three, or four or more goals based on their average number of goals per game:

Average number of goals	0	1	2	3	4 or more
0.8	45%	36%	14%	4%	1%
1.2	30%	36%	22%	9%	3%
1.6	20%	32%	26%	14%	8%
2.0	14%	27%	27%	18%	14%

Let’s say you visit a site like Sbobet.top to bet on a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game, and the away team has averaged 0.8. You can calculate the probability for under 2.5 goals happening by using the John Haigh table above.

But before you go ahead with the calculation, you’ll first need to determine the scorelines that can lead to an under 2.5 goals situation. This would be 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2.

Below is a table showing the calculation for each scoreline probability.

PS: Note that you can do a similar calculation for under/over 0.5, 1.5, 3.5, etc. goals. We’ve chosen under 2.5 goals because we suspect that the game (between two teams who have averaged a total of 2 goals per game) will not produce too many goals. If you can’t suspect anything, just start with 0.5 goals and work your way up.

Exact score	Probability of home team to score the indicated number of goals	Probability of away team to score the indicated number of goals	Probability of exact score
0-0	30%	45%	30% x 45% = 13.5%
1-0	35%	45%	36% x 45% = 16.2%
0-1	30%	36%	30% x 36% = 10.8%
1-1	36%	36%	36% x 36% = 12.96%
2-0	22%	45%	22% x 45% = 9.9%
0-2	30%	14%	30% x 14% = 4.2%
Total under 2.5 goals probability:			67.56%

Since we know the individual probabilities of each possible scoreline that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we now add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals, which gives us:

13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5%

Step 3: convert the probability to decimal odds

Since your bookmaker will most likely present the odds for Under/Over market in decimal odds. It’s expected of us to convert the overall probability we have above into decimal odds, too.

You can use this formula to do that:

Decimal odds = 100 / probability

In the case of our 67.56% possibility, we’ll have a decimal odd of 1.48.

This means that you should only bet on under 2.5 goals for a match if you find a bookmaker offering odds of higher than 1.48.

If you can’t find such odds on any bookies’ site, use a similar approach to calculate for other ranges of goals, and then compare the odds.

Although this approach does not guarantee winnings, it does provide you with a trusted strategy that can fetch you a positive expected value.

Learning

First-Time Buyer’s Guide to the UK Property Market

Entering the UK property market as a first-time buyer can feel both exciting and daunting. The process is filled with potential pitfalls and complex decisions, but with the right guidance, it can be navigated smoothly. The estate agents in Yorkshire demystify the journey from the initial decision to buy a home to the moment you step over the threshold of your new property.

Understanding Your Financial Position

The first and perhaps most crucial step in the home-buying process is understanding your financial situation. This includes assessing your savings, income, and current debts. Here’s how you can prepare:

1. Deposit: Generally, you’ll need at least 5% of the property price as a deposit, though aiming for 10% or more can provide better mortgage rates.

2. Income and Expenses: Use a budget planner to assess your monthly income against your expenses. This will help you understand how much you can afford in monthly mortgage repayments.

3. Credit Score: Lenders will evaluate your credit score to determine your mortgage eligibility. So it’s important to have a good credit score, and you should work on it if required.

4. Mortgage Options: Speak to a mortgage advisor to understand different types of mortgages, such as fixed-rate, variable-rate, and help-to-buy schemes.

Getting a Mortgage Agreement in Principle

A Mortgage Agreement in Principle (AIP) is a statement from a lender indicating how much they’ll likely lend you. You will be a more attractive buyer with an AIP as it shows sellers you’re serious and financially prepared.

Deciding What You Want

Before you start viewing properties, it’s essential to know what you’re looking for. Consider the following factors:

1. Location: Proximity to work, schools, public transport, and amenities are key. Research neighbourhoods to find the best fit for your lifestyle.

2. Property Type: Decide whether you want a flat, terraced house, semi-detached, or detached property. Each has its pros and cons.

3. Must-Haves: Make a list of non-negotiables, such as the number of bedrooms, garden size, and parking facilities.

4. Future Proofing: Consider your future needs. Are you planning to start a family? Do you need space for a home office?

Starting the Property Search

With a clear idea of what you’re looking for, you can begin your property search. Here are some tips:

1. Use Online Portals: Websites like Rightmove, Zoopla, and OnTheMarket are excellent starting points. Set up alerts to get notified of new listings that meet your criteria.

2. Visit Estate Agents: Register with local estate agents who can provide insights into the market and inform you of new properties before they’re listed online.

3. Attend Viewings: Don’t rush this part. Visit several properties to get a feel for what’s available in your price range.

Making an Offer

Once you find a property you love, it’s time to make an offer. Here’s how to approach it:

1. Research: Check the selling prices of similar properties in the area to gauge a fair offer.

2. Negotiate: Don’t be afraid to negotiate. The starting point is most usually the asking price.

3. Conditions: You might include conditions in your offer, such as the inclusion of certain fixtures or a specific moving date.

The Legal Process

If your offer is accepted, the legal process begins. You’ll need a solicitor or licensed conveyancer to handle the legalities. Here’s what to expect:

1. Conveyancing: This is the legal transfer of property ownership. Your solicitor will handle this, including conducting searches, dealing with the Land Registry, and transferring the funds.

2. Surveys and Inspections: Arrange for a property survey to check for structural issues. There are different types of surveys, from basic condition reports to full structural surveys.

3. Mortgage Finalisation: Once the survey is complete and satisfactory, your mortgage can be finalised.

4. Exchange of Contracts: This is when the sale becomes legally binding. You’ll pay your deposit at this stage.

5. Completion: On the agreed completion date, the remaining money is transferred, and you receive the keys to your new home.

Moving In

Moving day can be hectic, but planning can ease the stress:

1. Hire a Removal Company: Book a reliable removal company well in advance. Discover the best deals by getting quotes from multiple companies.

2. Pack Strategically: Label your boxes by room and keep essential items accessible.

3. Notify Utilities and Change Address: Inform your utility providers of your move date and update your address with banks, the DVLA, and other important institutions.

Settling In

Get settled. Introduce yourself to the neighbours, familiarise yourself with the local area, and really start to make the place your own.

Here are a few final tips:

1. Safety Checks: Make sure that your smoke alarms and carbon monoxide detectors are working, and make sure that you know where the gas and electricity meters are located.

2. Maintenance Plan: Keep a record of the smooth functioning of your new home with a maintenance schedule, complete with regular checks and seasonal tasks.

3. Personal Touches: Add personal touches to make the space feel like home. This can be from putting up family photos or redoing the decoration in your rooms.

Conclusion

Buying your very first home in the UK is most definitely a milestone, difficult and full of challenges but rewarding in the end. Such a philosophy guides you in understanding finances and knowing what you want to achieve from detailed research, and seeking professional advice that confidently helps you navigate the property market. Yes, the journey may have its hurdles, but in the end—owning your own home—the reward will be worth the effort. Welcome to your new chapter!

Learning

5 Health Benefits of Regular Pedicures

There’s nothing quite like a pedicure to keep your feet looking and feeling their best, but did you know that pedicures do more than simply enhance the appearance of your feet? Many people don’t realize that regular pedicures can come with a wide range of health benefits that can promote the well-being of your feet, so here are some ways that your routine pedicure keeps both your toenails and feet in the best condition possible!

Smoother Skin

One of the biggest misconceptions about pedicures is that they only cater to and look after your toenails. While you’ll definitely be leaving each session with a fresh coat of nail polish, your pedicure can also do wonders for the health of your skin. Aside from trimming and shaping your nails and cuticles, you’ll notice that your nail technician also dedicates a few steps to the skin of your feet.

After inspecting your feet and looking for any issues or imperfections that may need to be addressed, your technician will work on an exfoliating scrub to remove any dead skin cells. This step may also be aided by a foot file, which can be used to buff away any calluses and other problem areas manually.

Softer Skin

After your nail technician addresses all the problem areas of your feet and removes any unwanted dead skin cells, he or she will often massage in a moisturizing product, such as lotion, cream, or butter, to ensure that your skin is properly moisturized. These products contain skin-loving ingredients that will ensure that your feet have everything they need to look and feel their best so that you can walk out of your pedicure with a renewed sense of confidence.

Healthier Nails

After your pedicure session, your nails will not only look better due to the fresh coat of nail polish, but they’ll also be healthier and stronger. This is because your nail technician takes their time to ensure that your nails are properly looked after through steps that include deep cleaning, nail trimming, nail filing, and cuticle care. All of these things work together to prevent issues like ingrown nails from occurring, all the while improving the appearance of your nails.

Increased Blood Circulation

While the specific steps included in your pedicure will depend on the beauty salon, most pedicures will have a massage step somewhere in the mix. One of the often overlooked benefits of these massages is the increased blood circulation, which can deliver more nutrients and oxygen to your feet and nails, promoting their health and appearance. Aside from that, better blood flow means reduced tension and soreness, as well as better distributed heat throughout your body.

Reduced Infections

A significant amount of dirt and bacteria can build up on your feet without you even realizing it, but pedicures can be a great way to prevent these from happening in the first place. The exfoliation step of a pedicure removes dead skin cells as well as all the debris that may have accumulated underneath, and the deep cleaning of your toenails and cuticles also gets rid of any impurities that may have slipped beneath them, which can stop infections from happening.

These are some of the many health benefits that you can look forward to at your next pedicure appointment. However, it’s worth noting that you need to book regular sessions to truly reap all the rewards. This can be difficult, especially when you don’t feel like driving to your nearest nail salon after a long day, but the good news is that you can enjoy the salon experience in the comfort of your own home with a home pedicure service.

Learning

Commercial Boiler Installation Services London

For businesses in the bustling city of London, having a reliable heating system is crucial. Whether you’re opening a new office, expanding your current premises, or simply upgrading an outdated system, commercial boiler installation services for businesses in London are essential to ensure your operations run smoothly and efficiently. Proper installation and maintenance of commercial boilers can make a significant difference in energy efficiency, cost savings, and the overall comfort of your workspace.

The Importance of Professional Installation

When it comes to installing a commercial boiler, professional expertise is paramount. Here’s why:

Efficiency and Performance: Professional installation ensures that your boiler operates at peak efficiency, reducing energy consumption and lowering utility bills. A well-installed boiler can effectively meet the heating demands of your business without unnecessary energy waste.
Safety: Commercial boilers are complex systems that require precise installation to operate safely. Professional installers adhere to stringent safety standards and regulations, minimizing the risk of accidents and ensuring the safety of your employees and premises.
Compliance with Regulations: Commercial properties are subject to various building codes and regulations. Professional installers are well-versed in these requirements and ensure that your boiler system complies with all local laws and standards.
Longevity and Reliability: Proper installation is critical to the longevity and reliability of your boiler. A professional installation can prevent common issues such as leaks, pressure problems, and system failures, ensuring that your boiler runs smoothly for years to come.

Key Considerations for Commercial Boiler Installation

When planning for a commercial boiler installation, several factors need to be considered:

Type of Boiler: The type of boiler you choose will depend on your business’s specific needs. Options include gas boilers, oil boilers, and electric boilers, each with its own set of advantages. Consulting with a professional can help you determine the best choice for your business.
Sizing and Capacity: The boiler’s size and capacity must match the heating demands of your commercial space. An undersized boiler will struggle to meet your needs, while an oversized one will lead to inefficiencies and higher costs.
Location: The placement of your boiler affects its efficiency and accessibility for maintenance. Professional installers can help you choose the optimal location for your boiler.
Integration with Existing Systems: If you’re upgrading or replacing an existing boiler, it’s essential to ensure compatibility with your current heating system. Professional installers can seamlessly integrate the new boiler with your existing setup.

Choosing the Right Installation Service

Selecting the right installation service provider is crucial to the success of your boiler installation project. Consider the following when making your choice:

Experience and Expertise: Look for a provider with a proven track record in commercial boiler installations. Experienced installers can handle the complexities of commercial systems and provide high-quality workmanship.
Reputation: Check reviews and testimonials from previous clients to gauge the provider’s reliability and customer satisfaction.
Comprehensive Services: Choose a provider that offers a full range of services, including installation, maintenance, and repair. This ensures that all your boiler needs are met by a single, trusted source.

In London, ROWLEN is a reputable name known for delivering top-notch commercial boiler installation services. Their team of experts is dedicated to providing efficient, safe, and compliant installations tailored to the unique needs of businesses.

Conclusion

Investing in professional commercial boiler installation services for businesses in London is essential for ensuring efficiency, safety, and long-term reliability. By choosing an experienced and reputable service provider like ROWLEN, you can rest assured that your heating system will be installed correctly and maintained to the highest standards. Proper installation not only enhances the performance of your boiler but also contributes to the overall comfort and productivity of your business environment.

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