Thailand Politics

Thailand’s March 2019 Election: What Should We Know

BANGKOK – After nearly five years under Military Junta rule, Thailand will hold national elections on March 24th, which could be a turning point for a country that has been considered one of the most stable states in Southeast Asia despite weathering nearly two decades of political strife.

More likely, though, the elections will further entrench rule by the military and an increasingly assertive monarchy at a time when many Southeast Asian democracies are failing.

From Crisis to Crisis

Thailand, a democracy for most of the 1990s and early 2000s, has in the past decade had two military coups (in 2006 and 2014), violent street protests, a standoff in which the army and vigilantes killed at least ninety people in Bangkok (2010), and a lengthy insurgency in the southernmost provinces.

Though the Thai army seemed to accept civilian rule in the 1990s and early 2000s, it once again regularly intervenes in politics and considers itself, along with the monarchy, the bedrock of national stability.

The coups ousted populist political parties linked to Thaksin Shinawatra, long the country’s dominant political figure. The army has more recently overseen the passage of a new constitution and other laws designed to entrench its power.

The Junta’s new constitution makes it harder for any one party—such as Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party—to win a majority of seats in the lower house of parliament. A party allied to Thaksin, the Thai Raksa Chart Party, will likely be banned from the election. The army and its supporters maintain their political base in Bangkok, creating a divide between the capital and the rural north and northeast, Pheu Thai’s base.

Thailand’s elected politicians are not blameless. Although Thaksin and his successors have won every election since 2001, in office they often further corroded democratic institutions. Thaksin launched a brutal war on drugs during his time in office (2001–2006) that reportedly resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings.

Free and Fair Elections?

The election itself will probably be relatively free, but despite considerable popular excitement, the road to election day has not been fair. Thailand’s junta has created a highly repressive environment, restricting online discourse and detaining activists, opposition politicians, academics, and writers. Still, Puea Thai reportedly remains the most popular political party.

Military Maneuvers

No matter who wins, Thailand will likely remain in political crisis. If Pheu Thai and its allies gain control of the lower house of parliament, the military and its allies will likely respond harshly. They could use the courts or the bureaucracy to weaken a pro-Thaksin coalition and jail its leaders. These are tactics the army and its allies have used in the past.

Though the army’s favored parties are unlikely to win a majority in the lower house, they could maneuver after the election to get many small parties to back them—and then make junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha prime minister. In this scenario, Thailand would have essentially a democratic facade, behind which the military and the king remain the true powers.

If pro-military parties succeed in this maneuvering, it could cause blow back from Puea Thai backers. Either scenario could trigger violence among supporters of Pheu Thai and other pro-Thaksin parties.

Higher Stakes

Continued unrest would harm regional stability and U.S. interests; Thailand is a treaty ally of the United States, as well as a leading trading partner and a regional hub for many of its agencies. Political instability would also hamper efforts to suppress the southern insurgency, which has killed some seven thousand people since the early 2000s.

Political inconsistency in the kingdom scares off investors, yet new investment is necessary for Thailand to modernize its economy. The government’s tilt toward authoritarianism provides an opportunity for Beijing to bolster its diplomatic and defense links with Bangkok.

By Joshua Kurlantzick
Council on Foreign Relations

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This Copyright Article first appeared at cfr.org

Thailand Politics

Thai Prime Minister’s Popularity Declines as Move Forward Party dominates

(CTN News) – Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin continues to make local and international visits to try to solve problems and promote Thailand, but he has failed to impress most voters, according to a Nida poll. The poll also revealed the declining popularity of Pheu Thai Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the rise of the Move Forward Party.

According to a poll released on Sunday, only 12.85% of people supported the prime minister, down from 17.75% in the previous survey. The daughter of convicted former Prime Minister Thaksin, currently on parole, saw her popularity drop from 6% to 4.85%.

The National Institute of Development Administration conducts a quarterly survey of the public’s preferred political leaders. The last survey was released at the end of March.

According to the survey, supporters of the prime minister described Mr Srettha as a resolute decision-maker determined to address their problems. Ms Paetongtarn was complimented for her vision, leadership, knowledge, and grasp of the country’s difficulties.

This weekend, the prime minister will be in the northeast region listening to citizens’ concerns. The journey occurred only a few days after he had visited northern provinces earlier in the week.

Despite criticism, he has reduced his abroad trips, citing the need to showcase Thailand to investors and traders.

Pita Limjaroenrat, the chief advisor of the Move Forward Party, remained the top candidate for prime minister with 45.50% of the vote, up slightly from 42.75% in the previous quarter’s poll.

Pirapan Salirathavibhaga was the huge winner. The leader of the United Thai National Party saw his popularity nearly quadruple from 3.55% to 6.85%.

The sampled voters stated they appreciated Mr Pita’s political beliefs and thought he had broad knowledge. They praised Mr Pirapan’s credibility, claiming he was clean and honest.

Two other probable prime minister candidates were Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Thai Sang Thai Party and Anutin Chanvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai. However, they were less popular than others.

About 20% of voters still did not believe any candidate was qualified to lead the country, which is the same percentage as in the last survey.

Move Forward Party was the most popular party with 49.20%, up slightly from three months ago, while Pheu Thai fell around five percentage points to 16.85% from 22.10%.

The poll, issued on Sunday, surveyed 2,000 ineligible voters between June 14 and June 18.

Thailand Politics

Move Forward Party MP Jirat Thongsuwan Appeals Suspended Jail Sentence for Defamation

(CTN News) – Jirat Thongsuwan, a Move Forward Party MP, says he would appeal his one-year suspended jail sentence for defaming a former senior defense ministry official concerning the state’s procurement of bogus bomb detectors.

The Criminal Court also fined Mr Jirat 100,000 baht for falsely accusing ACM Tharet Punsri, a former Air Force chief-of-staff who later became the ministry’s deputy permanent secretary, of being the chairman and shareholder of a company that supplied the military with the infamous GT200 bomb detectors.

The Chachoengsao MP claimed a July 20, 2022, no-confidence vote against cabinet ministers in Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government. ACM Tharet was not a cabinet member.

Jirat Thongsuwan also identified ACM Tharet as a key figure in the 2006 coup headed by then-army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, which overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra.

ACM Tharet told the court that Jirat Thongsuwan’s charges were false and harmed his reputation. He denied involvement with the bomb detection company and said he was not the company’s senior chairman or shareholder.

In addition to the suspended jail term and fine, the court ordered Jirat Thongsuwan to pay $ 500,000 baht in damages to ACM Tharet and publish an apology in three newspapers for five days.

Jirat Thongsuwan later announced on his X account that he had challenged the verdict with the hashtag “An injustice is infuriating”.

The MP has also been accused of dodging required military conscription. He admitted to the accusation on May 8.

A British business promoted the GT200 as a “remote substance detector” and sold it in several countries. Between 2004 and 2009, fourteen Thai government organizations, most of which were military, were projected to spend 1.4 billion baht on the units.

Concerns about the GT200 and related gadgets arose after the National Science and Technology Development Agency discovered they lacked electronic components.

The devices were later revealed to be “divining rods”.

Thailand Politics

Thaksin Shinawatra Files 100 Million Baht Defamation Lawsuit Against Warong Dechgitvigrom

(CTN News) – Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, has launched a defamation action against Warong Dechgitvigrom, the head of the Thai Pakdee Party, accusing him of paying a bribe to be released on bail in a lese majeste case.

Thaksin’s attorney, Winyat Chartmontree, filed a lawsuit against Warong, seeking 100 million baht in damages.

Warong, a long-time Thaksin Shinawatra critic, gave a public statement and posted on social media, saying that 2 billion baht was paid to judicial officials in exchange for release on bail in the lese majeste case.

Thaksin Shinawatra Granted Release on 500,000 Baht Bond

Thaksin was granted release on a 500,000 baht bond last week and told not to leave the country without court authorization after pleading innocent to charges of defaming King Rama IX in a 2015 interview with South Korean media.

Winyat stated that, while Warong did not identify Thaksin Shinawatra by name in his speech or post, he did include a hashtag with Thaksin’s name as well as the date Thaksin must appear in court, allowing readers to connect Thaksin to the allegations.

Winyat further stated that he was investigating the fact that Warong mentioned the specific aircraft and automobiles utilized by Thaksin Shinawatra to violate the Personal Data Protection Act.

“I have requested Mr Warong to provide proof as to where he received the data. “If it turns out that it came from state officials, there will be legal consequences,” he warned.

The Criminal Court has scheduled the case’s preliminary hearing for September 30.