Thailand Politics

What Will Thailand’s Post-Coup ‘Democracy’ Look Like?

When democracy does return to Thailand it will surely be very unlike anything the country has seen before.

BANGKOK – As an excellent piece in the Associated Press notes this week, Thailand’s junta appears to be entrenching itself for the long haul. Junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha has named himself to Thailand’s Board of Investment. The junta is putting other cronies at the heads of major state-controlled companies, Prayuth has left the timetable for a total return to civilian rule purposefully vague, and the coup leaders also have refused to say exactly what that civil government will look like, or what Thailand’s next constitution will look like either. (The generals essentially ripped up the previous constitution after launching the coup in May.)

However, you can bet that the “democracy” Thais inherit some time after the junta steps down is going to bear little resemblance to the political system in Thailand of the past fifteen years – or to internationally accepted norms of what constitutes democracy. Having learned from Thailand’s 2006 coup, when the army failed to totally undermine the power of rural voters, the junta likely will push through new legislation that will never allow Thailand’s numerical majority to prevail over other power centers again.

Instead, expect the post-coup “democratic” government to look like this:

1. Appointed members of parliament or those selected from Hong Kong-style “functional constituencies” will have immense power in the next civilian government. The People’s Democratic Reform Committee protestors, who paralyzed Bangkok for months in late 2013 and early 2014 and helped trigger the coup, often pushed for such a scheme. A scheme in which appointed members of parliament constitute a large percentage of the chambers would dilute the rural majority’s power and keep Bangkok effectively in control of the legislature, which is especially important during a monarchical succession. (This idea of non-elected MPs has a long history, and dates back to previous elite protests in Thailand in the late 2000s.) The army leaders have said that they want to cool political temperatures and do not favor any side of Thailand’s poisonous color-coded politics, but that vow of neutrality already has been proven completely false. Expect the military to push through an appointed/functional constituencies scheme in which at least half of parliament’s upper and lower house (the Senate previously had non-elected members) is selected this way.

2. Prominent members of Thaksinite parties will be banned from politics for life, unless they have already turned tail and totally given into the junta, like former Thaksin ally and former Minister of Agriculture Sudarat Keyuraphan. Since Thaksin first won the prime ministership in 2001, the judiciary, the palace, and the military have used five-year bans to keep pro-Thaksin politicians out of office, but the elites underestimated the staying power of Thaksin and of rural voters. Indeed, many politicians who were banned, like former minister Chaturon Chaiseng, were able to come back after five years and again lead Thaksinite parties and serve in ministerial positions. Expect the army and its selected constitution drafters (all of whom will be appointed and not elected) to find a way to keep the most important pro-Thaksin politicians out of politics for the rest of their lives. It used to be said that, in Thailand, everyone in politics always gets a chance to come back, no matter what they have done in the past…but that was then, and this is a different time in the kingdom.

3. The judiciary and other institutions will be made even stronger. Since 2006, the judiciary and other bureaucratic institutions have been key weapons in the Bangkok elites and middle classes’ battle to maintain control of politics, but at times Thaksinite parties have managed to put some of their own allies in key judicial and bureaucratic posts. No more. The junta will leave a constitution and legislation that both makes the judiciary and other institutions stronger and insulates these institutions from any control at all by an elected prime minister.

4. The army’s constitution drafters will figure out a way to provide an amnesty for the 2014 coup-makers who, after all, broke the law by seizing power. Amnesty for the coup-makers? That’s one Thai tradition that isn’t going out of style.

Joshua Kurlantzick is a fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. He blogs at Asia Unbound, where this piece originally appeared. You can follow him on Twitter: @JoshKurlantzick

Thailand Politics

Thai Prime Minister’s Popularity Declines as Move Forward Party dominates

(CTN News) – Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin continues to make local and international visits to try to solve problems and promote Thailand, but he has failed to impress most voters, according to a Nida poll. The poll also revealed the declining popularity of Pheu Thai Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the rise of the Move Forward Party.

According to a poll released on Sunday, only 12.85% of people supported the prime minister, down from 17.75% in the previous survey. The daughter of convicted former Prime Minister Thaksin, currently on parole, saw her popularity drop from 6% to 4.85%.

The National Institute of Development Administration conducts a quarterly survey of the public’s preferred political leaders. The last survey was released at the end of March.

According to the survey, supporters of the prime minister described Mr Srettha as a resolute decision-maker determined to address their problems. Ms Paetongtarn was complimented for her vision, leadership, knowledge, and grasp of the country’s difficulties.

This weekend, the prime minister will be in the northeast region listening to citizens’ concerns. The journey occurred only a few days after he had visited northern provinces earlier in the week.

Despite criticism, he has reduced his abroad trips, citing the need to showcase Thailand to investors and traders.

Pita Limjaroenrat, the chief advisor of the Move Forward Party, remained the top candidate for prime minister with 45.50% of the vote, up slightly from 42.75% in the previous quarter’s poll.

Pirapan Salirathavibhaga was the huge winner. The leader of the United Thai National Party saw his popularity nearly quadruple from 3.55% to 6.85%.

The sampled voters stated they appreciated Mr Pita’s political beliefs and thought he had broad knowledge. They praised Mr Pirapan’s credibility, claiming he was clean and honest.

Two other probable prime minister candidates were Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Thai Sang Thai Party and Anutin Chanvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai. However, they were less popular than others.

About 20% of voters still did not believe any candidate was qualified to lead the country, which is the same percentage as in the last survey.

Move Forward Party was the most popular party with 49.20%, up slightly from three months ago, while Pheu Thai fell around five percentage points to 16.85% from 22.10%.

The poll, issued on Sunday, surveyed 2,000 ineligible voters between June 14 and June 18.

Thailand Politics

Move Forward Party MP Jirat Thongsuwan Appeals Suspended Jail Sentence for Defamation

(CTN News) – Jirat Thongsuwan, a Move Forward Party MP, says he would appeal his one-year suspended jail sentence for defaming a former senior defense ministry official concerning the state’s procurement of bogus bomb detectors.

The Criminal Court also fined Mr Jirat 100,000 baht for falsely accusing ACM Tharet Punsri, a former Air Force chief-of-staff who later became the ministry’s deputy permanent secretary, of being the chairman and shareholder of a company that supplied the military with the infamous GT200 bomb detectors.

The Chachoengsao MP claimed a July 20, 2022, no-confidence vote against cabinet ministers in Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government. ACM Tharet was not a cabinet member.

Jirat Thongsuwan also identified ACM Tharet as a key figure in the 2006 coup headed by then-army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, which overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra.

ACM Tharet told the court that Jirat Thongsuwan’s charges were false and harmed his reputation. He denied involvement with the bomb detection company and said he was not the company’s senior chairman or shareholder.

In addition to the suspended jail term and fine, the court ordered Jirat Thongsuwan to pay $ 500,000 baht in damages to ACM Tharet and publish an apology in three newspapers for five days.

Jirat Thongsuwan later announced on his X account that he had challenged the verdict with the hashtag “An injustice is infuriating”.

The MP has also been accused of dodging required military conscription. He admitted to the accusation on May 8.

A British business promoted the GT200 as a “remote substance detector” and sold it in several countries. Between 2004 and 2009, fourteen Thai government organizations, most of which were military, were projected to spend 1.4 billion baht on the units.

Concerns about the GT200 and related gadgets arose after the National Science and Technology Development Agency discovered they lacked electronic components.

The devices were later revealed to be “divining rods”.

Thailand Politics

Thaksin Shinawatra Files 100 Million Baht Defamation Lawsuit Against Warong Dechgitvigrom

(CTN News) – Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, has launched a defamation action against Warong Dechgitvigrom, the head of the Thai Pakdee Party, accusing him of paying a bribe to be released on bail in a lese majeste case.

Thaksin’s attorney, Winyat Chartmontree, filed a lawsuit against Warong, seeking 100 million baht in damages.

Warong, a long-time Thaksin Shinawatra critic, gave a public statement and posted on social media, saying that 2 billion baht was paid to judicial officials in exchange for release on bail in the lese majeste case.

Thaksin Shinawatra Granted Release on 500,000 Baht Bond

Thaksin was granted release on a 500,000 baht bond last week and told not to leave the country without court authorization after pleading innocent to charges of defaming King Rama IX in a 2015 interview with South Korean media.

Winyat stated that, while Warong did not identify Thaksin Shinawatra by name in his speech or post, he did include a hashtag with Thaksin’s name as well as the date Thaksin must appear in court, allowing readers to connect Thaksin to the allegations.

Winyat further stated that he was investigating the fact that Warong mentioned the specific aircraft and automobiles utilized by Thaksin Shinawatra to violate the Personal Data Protection Act.

“I have requested Mr Warong to provide proof as to where he received the data. “If it turns out that it came from state officials, there will be legal consequences,” he warned.

The Criminal Court has scheduled the case’s preliminary hearing for September 30.